According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US is facing a deficit spending crisis as the president calls for a 250 basis point rate cut, CPI inflation nears the Fed's 2% target, and effective tariff rates approach historical highs, while the US stands on the brink of conflict with Iran (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 20, 2025). These fiscal and geopolitical pressures create heightened volatility across financial markets, with crypto assets like BTC and ETH positioned as alternative hedges against macroeconomic risk. Traders should closely monitor how potential rate cuts and escalating geopolitical events may drive capital flows into digital assets, amplifying short-term trading opportunities.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US is facing a significant deficit spending crisis as indicated by four key factors: the president's call for a 250 basis point rate cut, escalating tensions with Iran, CPI inflation approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and US effective tariff rates reaching historic highs (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 20, 2025). These developments suggest increased fiscal instability, which has historically driven volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should watch for heightened BTC and ETH price action in response to potential rate cuts and geopolitical risks, as these macroeconomic signals often trigger shifts in digital asset flows and risk appetite.

According to market analysis, the dollar index (DXY) fell below 98 for the first time since early 2022, signaling a weakening U.S. dollar that historically boosts risk assets like bitcoin (BTC). U.S. headline inflation came in at 2.4% year-over-year, below the consensus estimate of 2.5%, strengthening expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy shift. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.8% probability of a rate cut in June, with the target range expected to drop to 4.25-4.50%. Growing de-dollarization narratives and policy uncertainty from the Trump administration's trade policies are accelerating the dollar's decline, as warned by Bank of America.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), bond yields have remained steady following the May CPI print, indicating that the bond market does not anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near future (source: Twitter, June 11, 2025). This signals ongoing tight monetary policy, which historically puts pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Crypto traders should factor in the likelihood of sustained higher yields, which may limit bullish momentum in the near term.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, there is an 85% chance that no rate cut will occur in May, despite President Trump's calls for lower rates. Fed Chair Powell has indicated a lack of urgency in adjusting rates, influencing market sentiment and impacting trading strategies.

According to Crypto Rover, U.S. inflation is significantly decreasing, suggesting a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could be imminent, which may impact cryptocurrency markets by increasing liquidity and potentially driving up prices.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this forecast has now decreased to a median of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring before June 2025 has also diminished.

According to Cas Abbé, the FOMC rate cut decision is scheduled for today at 2 PM ET, with the market consensus leaning towards no rate cut. The focus will shift to Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET, where a dovish tone could potentially trigger a significant rally in the cryptocurrency markets.

According to Milk Road, the market is 99% confident that there will not be a rate cut, as indicated by recent market sentiment and analysis.

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), the focus this week is on the FED, with inflation showing signs of improvement but no rate cut expected. The forward-looking picture of the FED is crucial, and if Quantitative Tightening (QT) ends in the next 1-2 months, altcoins are expected to perform well.

According to Crypto Rover, the unemployment rate has come in higher than expected, leading to a 45.3% chance of a rate cut on May 7th. This development is considered bullish for Bitcoin, as lower interest rates could increase investment in risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to Crypto Rover (@rovercrc), the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move that is considered bullish for Bitcoin. This rate cut could lead to increased liquidity in the market, potentially driving up the price of Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in alternative assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has risen by 25 basis points from a low observed exactly one week ago. This increase reflects market expectations of one rate cut in 2025 followed by another Federal Reserve pause until December 2026. The resurgence of inflation has been confirmed, impacting trading strategies and market sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has increased by 25 basis points from its low a week ago. Markets are now anticipating a rate cut in 2025 followed by another Federal Reserve pause until December 2026, reflecting the resurgence of inflation pressures.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin ($BTC) experienced a significant daily candle, indicating potential upward momentum. This trajectory, however, is contingent upon the outcome of the upcoming FED meeting. Van de Poppe suggests that while a rate cut is not anticipated by the markets, such a move could notably boost altcoin strength. This analysis highlights the importance of the FED's monetary policy decisions on cryptocurrency trading dynamics.

According to CryptoMichNL, Ethereum ($ETH) is currently on an upward trajectory. The analyst anticipates a significant reversal in Ethereum's price around the time of the upcoming elections and an expected interest rate cut. CryptoMichNL expresses confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem and is optimistic about its potential growth during this period.

According to GreeksLive, the strong US economic data for October has led to a significant drop in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate meeting on November 8. Based on the current pricing of 30-day federal funds futures, there is an 85% market-expected probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

According to @EmberCN, a seasoned ETH trader who previously sold ETH at $2,354 after the rate cut on September 19, re-entered the market today following a price correction. The trader purchased 10,206.4 ETH at an average price of $2,571 using 26.24 million USDT across two addresses.

According to Greeks.live, this week (9/16-9/22) is critical for Bitcoin investors due to several significant macroeconomic events. The highlight is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday, where a 50-basis point rate cut is anticipated. This decision could have substantial implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin.

According to @CryptoMichNL, Bitcoin appears poised for an upward breakout. Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve today, which is expected to implement a rate cut of 25-50 basis points. Should this occur, Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trajectory towards $65,000 to $68,000.